Category: Politics

New Westminster 2020 Provincial Election Forecast

Hey it’s election time again! And that means I’m going to gaze into my crystal ball and forecast what the numbers are going to look like for the New Westminster electoral district (not the Richmond-Queensborough one!) after all the votes are counted.

Last time around the BC NDP had Judy Darcy running for re-election, the BC Green Party had a strong candidate in Jonina Campbell, and Lorraine Brett ran for the BC Liberals. Ultimately Judy Darcy improved upon her popular vote percentage, beating Jonina Campbell 51.55% to 25.36%. Lorraine Brett picked up 21.27% of the vote.

This time around the overwhelming majority of the drama came before the election, as Judy Darcy announced she would not be running for re-election. Two candidates stepped forward to take her place, Jennifer Whiteside and Ruby Campbell, and Jennifer Whiteside won the nod from the NDP constituency. For the BC Greens, Cyrus Sy put his name forward, as Jonina Campbell is now the Executive Director of the BC Greens. For the BC Liberals, Lorraine Brett decided to run again. Conservatives and Libertarians are also running candidates.

That’s the local flavour. How will it all play out, with the snap election complaints from non-NDP parties, the pandemic raging around us, and the partisan nature of politics we’ve been moving more and more towards in recent years?

My bold prediction is that Jennifer Whiteside and the BC NDP will win New Westminster. That’s no surprise. The BC NDP could run a potted plant and win here. That’s why I said the drama came before the election campaign started, because it was actually the NDP constituency members who were voting on who New Westminster’s next MLA will be, not the voting public in New Westminster.

I predict that the numbers will come down like this, plus-or-minus a couple of percent: Jennifer Whiteside: 62%. Cyrus Sy: 23%. Lorraine Brett: 13%. Everybody else: 2%.

Why did I pick these numbers? Let’s start at the bottom: While people have heard of the BC Conservatives (and maybe some people remember Benny Ogden from the last municipal election), and the leader of the Libertarian party is running in New Westminster, they’re complete non-entities in New Westminster. Between them I don’t see them getting more than 3% of the vote, if that.

I don’t see Lorraine Brett improving her numbers at all. The BC Liberals are circling the drain, and their low polling numbers in BC will only lead to a worsening of their support in New Westminster. That said, there isn’t any other proper right-wing party for right-wing people to vote for, so maybe 20% is about where the floor is for their support. Whatever it is, Lorraine Brett is going to hit it.

Last-minute update: I started writing this post on October 14. Early on October 16 news broke that Lorraine Brett thinks JK Rowling’s transphobic writings are her “best work”. I don’t know what effect this will have on her results, but I’m going to guess that it won’t be that great for her. Correspondingly, I’ve dropped my prediction for her by 4% and given it equally to the NDP and Green. My original numbers were 60%, 21%, and 17%.

Cyrus Sy isn’t as well-known as Jonina Campbell, and the BC Green party hasn’t been polling particularly well on a regional basis. There may be some disaffected NDP voters who would have preferred a candidate with more community ties than Jennifer Whiteside who will swing over to vote Green, but there won’t be more than a handful of them. I think that the 25% that the BC Greens got in 2017 is their ceiling right now. A lesser-known candidate combined with weaker polling for the BC Greens provincially, which means I backed him off to 21% 23%.

And that means whatever left over is for Jennifer Whiteside, which is 60% 62%.

The only thing worth watching in New Westminster is the race for second. My prediction is that the BC Greens come second again, and the BC Liberals finish third.

Is a 39% margin of victory plausible? This year, yes. The NDP is polling well, the Liberals lurch from homophobic candidate to transphobic candidate to misogynistic candidate, and the Greens haven’t had enough time to find their footing under a new leader. New Westminster is a strong NDP riding, and it will definitely be reflected in the results of the 2020 provincial election.

On 616 & 640 Sixth Street, New Westminster

616 & 640 Sixth Street in New Westminster are two buildings next to each other that are looking to get rezoned. The developer wants to replace the two two-storey commercial buildings with a building that will have over 12,000 square feet of street level commercial, 142 market strata residential units, and 95 secured market rental residential units. It will also have a 1700 square foot public plaza at the corner of Sixth Street and Seventh Avenue.

The building will be located along the Crosstown Greenway, which runs along Seventh Avenue. It’s also situated directly on the Frequent Transit Network (106 between New West and Edmonds), is two blocks from a second bus route on the FTN (123 between New West and Brentwood), and is a block from four other bus routes, all of which connect to seven SkyTrain stations. It’s located in New Westminster’s Uptown neighbourhood, which is an incredibly walkable location that includes grocery stores, doctors, dollar stores, restaurants, dentists, local and small businesses, and a wide range of other shops and services.

In short, it’s a perfect location for more homes for more neighbours.

But unfortunately one of the business owners who would be displaced (but would receive reduced rent, financial assistance for relocation costs, and relocation assistance through the developer’s network of commercial brokers) has started an anti-housing pro-“build nothing” group that likes to say NO to everything on Facebook, and he’s trying to rally his troops to go to the public hearing on June 24 to say NO to more homes for more neighbours. One of the things they’ve latched onto is the separate entrances for the rental and strata units in the proposed building, and they’re going to use this (and probably the typical arguments about traffic or views or noise) to try to convince Council to put a halt to this development.

My views? Here’s the letter I’m sending to Council outlining my views.

Dear Mayor and Council,

My name is Brad Cavanagh, and I am a resident of New Westminster. I am writing to you in support of Zoning Bylaw Amendment No. 7997, 2019 regarding 616 and 640 Sixth Street.

New Westminster, like the rest of Metro Vancouver, is in a housing crisis. The recent minor dip in housing prices has in no way alleviated this. Housing prices are still unaffordable for everybody but the rich. Rental vacancy rates are at historic lows. Rental housing is largely unstable and a source of concern and stress for a huge number of our neighbours. We need to build more secure rental housing, and the proposed development at 616 and 640 Sixth Street will help deliver this.

With 95 secured market rental units, 41 of which are 2-bedrooms and larger, this development will provide stable housing for more families and, more importantly, help reduce some of the competition for similar, older units in our city. 142 market strata units will invite 142 more families to our neighbourhoods and city, where they can enrich our urban landscape. How many of the 237 families will open new shops in our city? How many will open new restaurants? How many will bring new cultures and new experiences? How many will volunteer in our festivals, or start new non-profits? Our city is enriched with each new person and family who moves here, and this development will continue that enrichment.

The proposed development is in the Uptown neighbourhood, one of New Westminster’s most vibrant and walkable. It boasts restaurants, small and local businesses, doctors, grocery stores, dentists, and a wide range of other shops and services. The location is directly on the Frequent Transit Network linking residents to two SkyTrain stations, and with five other bus routes within two blocks, residents can get to any one of seven different SkyTrain stations. It is also located on the Crosstown Greenway, which allows for easy bicycle access to four elementary schools and one middle school. There will also be four car share parking spots for families in the neighbourhood who decide to go car-free or car-light. Transportation is not a problem with this proposal.

The only sticking point with this proposed development is the separate entrances for strata and rental units. It must be noted that in the proposed development there are essentially two buildings within the same envelope. If the proposal had two separate buildings, there would be nearly no controversy over the separate entrances, and this was exactly the case for the development at 813 Carnarvon Street, where two buildings were built for different residential tenures with separate entrances, yet there was little discussion about this, if any.

Now is not the time to stop sorely needed housing to address this issue. City Staff has already begun researching the topic of separation of common areas between different residential tenures, and I would ask that City Council make this formal and ask City Staff to continue to research the topic with the intention of writing clear policy in this area for future developments. Staff should continue to look to Vancouver and neighbouring cities, along with others across British Columbia and Canada, and learn from their experiences to develop a policy that treats all residents respectfully and fairly, regardless of how they live.

I ask that you approve Zoning Amendment Bylaw No. 7997 and also direct City Staff to continue to develop policy surrounding separate entrances, amenities, and common areas for different residential tenures in future developments.

Sincerely,
Brad Cavanagh.

If you would like to write a letter about this proposed rezoning, you can do so by emailing clerks@newwestcity.ca. Make sure to mention Zoning Bylaw Amendment No. 7997! And please do read the material as well, there’s a lot of interesting information in there that I didn’t even touch upon, like how the commercial spaces are going to be flexible and resizable, or how electric vehicle charging infrastructure will be built for every residential parking spot, or how there will be a total of 316 bicycle parking spots!

On SD40 and their Child Care Space funding request

Recently New Westminster’s school district (SD40) took a look at asking the provincial government for funding to supply some child care spaces at their schools. This is great! Child care is lacking in New Westminster and we need more.

What isn’t great is that the school district plans to ask for funding for 136 spaces for children that aren’t attending New Westminster schools. I don’t think that this is acceptable, so I wrote a letter to the New West Board of Education to ask them to fund school age child care spaces. Here’s the letter!

Dear SD40 Board of Education,

My name is Brad Cavanagh, I am a New Westminster resident and parent of a child at Qayqayt Elementary. I am writing to you regarding the proposed request for provincial funding for addition of child care spaces at four New Westminster schools. The proposed plan would request funding for 136 spaces for infants, toddlers, and children from ages of 3 to 5.

In my opinion, this plan is inadequate and contrary to what the school district should be requesting.

There is a need for child care spaces for children of all ages in New Westminster; this is not in question. However, infant, toddler, and preschool age child care spaces are relatively easier to open by third parties than school age spaces are. Logistics alone make school age child care spaces difficult, as getting children to and from school is challenging. Finding employees who can work split shifts across eleven hours of the day can be difficult. Leasing a space that remains empty for nearly seven hours a day is expensive, or requires complicated sharing arrangements. This all leads to a lack of child care spaces for school aged children. Having funding provided by the provincial government for child care spaces at schools these spaces will help with some of these logistical difficulties.

Further, the role of the school district is to provide education and services for school age children. The school district already provides services for this age group, and providing before and after school spaces for this age group slots in well with those services and aligns with the school district’s purpose.

The report states that the District recognizes the importance of child care on site at its schools to support families, enrolment and welcoming future students to school communities. Shouldn’t the District’s current students be a priority?

Anecdotally, I recently asked my daughter’s before and after school care provider (Westminster Children’s After School Society at Qayqayt Elementary) if they had any open spaces, as a friend’s before and after school care provider will be closing in May. They told me that not only do they not have any openings, they have a waitlist of nearly 180 children. Their other centres have huge waitlists as well; this is not a number that’s out of the ordinary for this school age child care provider.

I urge you to consider modifying the request for child care funding to drastically increase the number of school age child care spaces, as it aligns with the school district’s purpose and better serves children that currently attend New Westminster’s schools.

Sincerely,
Brad Cavanagh.

How Did New Westminster’s Neighbourhoods Vote? Part 2: Individual Polling Stations

In my last post I looked at how the different candidates (and teams) gained and lost votes from neighbourhood to neighbourhood. In this post I’m going to look at who won each polling station (but only those used on election day, I’m not looking at advance voting). This is different from the previous look because Team Cote won the overall election by a wide margin (the difference between Chuck Puchmayr in 6th and Daniel Fontaine in 7th was 1300 votes), so even if the New West Progressives did manage to swing a polling station by 50 votes, it may not have made much of a difference in that polling station’s end numbers.

And that’s pretty much the case. For council, Team Cote swept thirteen out of the sixteen polling stations. At Herbert Spencer Daniel Fontaine beat out Chuck Puchmayr by 12 votes (396 to 384) to take sixth place. Fontaine won F.W. Howay, and Ellen Vaillancourt tied with Jaimie McEvoy for the sixth position with 141 votes. Queen Elizabeth saw all four New West Progressive council candidates in the top six, with Nadine Nakagawa in fourth and Chuck Puchmayr in sixth.

If we put this another way, Nadine Nakagawa was in the top six at every polling station. Patrick Johnstone, Mary Trentadue, Chinu Das, and Jaimie McEvoy were in the top six at fifteen out of sixteen, Chuck Puchmayr was in the top six at fourteen out of sixteen, Daniel Fontaine was in the top six at three out of sixteen, Ellen Vaillancourt was in the top six at two out of sixteen, and Paul McNamara and Bryn Ward were in the top six at one polling station.

The school trustee election was a little more wide open, which isn’t surprising as neither team fielded an entire slate of candidates. Of the candidates that did not get elected, Alejandro Diaz was in the top seven at five out of sixteen polling stations (his top result was at Herbert Spencer, tying for second with Dee Beattie with 406 votes), Cyrus Sy at four (fifth at F.W. Howay and Queen Elizabeth), Lisa Falbo at three (third at Queen Elizabeth), and Lisa Graham at two (third at F.W. Howay).

Of those who were elected, Anita Ansari, Dee Beattie, and Danielle Connelly were in the top seven at every polling station. Gurveen Dhaliwal, and Mark Gifford made it to the top seven at fourteen of sixteen, Maya Russell at thirteen, and Mary Lalji at nine.

If I were to provide analysis on this, I would say that New West city council has a city-wide mandate for their platform, excepting Queensborough. Even though they did worse than their city-wide average in other neighbourhoods such as Massey Victory Heights (which is where F.W. Howay pulls its voters from) they still have enough support that they would have easily had a strong majority on council from votes in those neighbourhoods.

The school board is a little murkier, but still shows a strong support for Team Cote’s candidates. Danielle Connelly, despite ending up sixth in the overall count, shows support from every neighbourhood in the city. This is in sharp contrast to her fellow New West Progressive candidates who showed varying and spiky support from a handful of neighbourhoods. My belief is that this is because Danielle Connelly is a strong candidate who has strong support in the community because of her involvement in the wider community for some time.

Here’s a question to chew on: Was Danielle Connelly helped or hindered by running with the New West Progressives?

Of the independent school trustee candidates, I was surprised at how well Alejandro Diaz did. I was not at all expecting him to place second at a polling station, even the one that’s essentially his “home” station (he lives in the Queens Park neighbourhood, and Herbert Spencer is usually seen as “Queens Park’s polling station”), and finishing in the top seven at five of the polling stations is a strong showing for a new independent candidate. I’m not surprised that Lisa Graham did well at F.W. Howay, as that’s her “home” station and she has some name recognition from her previous time on the school board.

Here are the top results from each of the polling stations:

Century House
585 Chuck Puchmayr
579 Nadine Nakagawa
575 Jaimie McEvoy
553 Patrick Johnstone
552 Mary Trentadue
489 Chinu Das

535 Mark Gifford
508 Anita Ansari
482 Dee Beattie
443 Danielle Connelly
437 Maya Russell
427 Gurveen Dhaliwal
362 Lisa Falbo
Connaught Heights
292 Nadine Nakagawa
279 Patrick Johnstone
278 Chinu Das
277 Chuck Puchmayr
274 Mary Trentadue
248 Jaimie McEvoy

293 Anita Ansari
272 Gurveen Dhaliwal
263 Mark Gifford
240 Dee Beattie
222 Maya Russell
214 Danielle Connelly
209 Mary Lalji
Fraser River Middle School
392 Nadine Nakagawa
335 Patrick Johnstone
333 Jaimie McEvoy
325 Chinu Das
324 Mary Trentadue
292 Chuck Puchmayr

312 Anita Ansari
295 Dee Beattie
286 Mark Gifford
284 Gurveen Dhaliwal
274 Maya Russell
188 Danielle Connelly
187 Alejandro Diaz
F.W. Howay
169 Daniel Fontaine
164 Mary Trentadue
157 Patrick Johnstone
147 Chinu Das
146 Nadine Nakagawa
141 (tie) Jaimie McEvoy
141 (tie) Ellen Vaillancourt

173 Mary Lalji
169 Danielle Connelly
164 Lisa Graham
159 Dee Beattie
142 Cyrus Sy
138 Anita Ansari
135 Lisa Falbo
Glenbrook Middle School
331 Nadine Nakagawa
324 Patrick Johnstone
318 Chuck Puchmayr
311 Mary Trentadue
296 (tie) Chinu Das
296 (tie) Jaimie McEvoy

322 Dee Beattie
295 Anita Ansari
283 (tie) Gurveen Dhaliwal
283 (tie) Mark Gifford
265 Maya Russell
259 Danielle Connelly
243 Mary Lalji
Glenbrook Park Amenities Centre
368 Nadine Nakagawa
365 Patrick Johnstone
356 Jaimie McEvoy
347 Mary Trentadue
336 Chuck Puchmayr
312 Chinu Das

363 Dee Beattie
322 Anita Ansari
310 Mark Gifford
275 Gurveen Dhaliwal
274 Maya Russell
232 Danielle Connelly
228 Cyrus Sy
Herbert Spencer
486 Mary Trentadue
484 Patrick Johnstone
468 Nadine Nakagawa
420 Jaimie McEvoy
417 Chinu Das
396 Daniel Fontaine

423 Mary Lalji
406 (tie) Dee Beattie
406 (tie) Alejandro Diaz
405 Gurveen Dhaliwal
397 Mark Gifford
385 Danielle Connelly
372 Anita Ansari
Lord Kelvin
279 Nadine Nakagawa
263 Mary Trentadue
249 Chinu Das
235 Patrick Johnstone
232 Chuck Puchmayr
213 Jaimie McEvoy

240 Anita Ansari
224 Mark Gifford
216 Dee Beattie
205 Gurveen Dhaliwal
199 Maya Russell
159 Danielle Connelly
158 Mary Lalji
Qayqayt
279 Nadine Nakagawa
273 Chinu Das
260 Mary Trentadue
259 (tie) Patrick Johnstone
259 (tie) Jaimie McEvoy
224 Chuck Puchmayr

271 Anita Ansari
246 Dee Beattie
227 Gurveen Dhaliwal
221 Maya Russell
215 Mark Gifford
159 Danielle Connelly
153 Alejandro Diaz
Queen Elizabeth
658 Daniel Fontaine
622 Paul McNamara
585 Bryn Ward
581 Nadine Nakagawa
567 Ellen Vaillancourt
509 Chuck Puchmayr

668 Gurveen Dhaliwal
615 Danielle Connelly
605 Lisa Falbo
599 Anita Ansari
555 Cyrus Sy
469 Mary Lalji
458 Dee Beattie
Richard McBride
359 Patrick Johnstone
340 Nadine Nakagawa
335 Mary Trentadue
305 Chinu Das
288 Jaimie McEvoy
259 Chuck Puchmayr

291 Anita Ansari
290 Danielle Connelly
288 Maya Russell
282 Dee Beattie
277 Mary Lalji
272 Mark Gifford
248 Cyrus Sy
Riverbend Housing Co-op
510 Nadine Nakagawa
481 Patrick Johnstone
466 Mary Trentadue
465 Jaimie McEvoy
443 Chinu Das
440 Chuck Puchmayr

437 Anita Ansari
389 Dee Beattie
384 Mark Gifford
370 Gurveen Dhaliwal
354 Maya Russell
294 Danielle Connelly
255 Alejandro Diaz
Royal Westminster Armoury
476 Nadine Nakagawa
422 Mary Trentadue
419 Patrick Johnstone
418 Jaimie McEvoy
376 Chuck Puchmayr
365 Chinu Das

362 Anita Ansari
359 Dee Beattie
351 Mark Gifford
327 Danielle Connelly
323 Gurveen Dhaliwal
304 Maya Russell
300 Alejandro Diaz
St. Aidan’s
325 Nadine Nakagawa
298 Patrick Johnstone
294 Mary Trentadue
275 Chinu Das
272 Chuck Puchmayr
249 Jaimie McEvoy

285 Anita Ansari
268 Gurveen Dhaliwal
250 Mark Gifford
236 Dee Beattie
230 Mary Lalji
220 Maya Russell
217 Danielle Connelly
St. Barnabas
310 Nadine Nakagawa
273 Jaimie McEvoy
261 Mary Trentadue
248 Chuck Puchmayr
239 Patrick Johnstone
234 Chinu Das

251 Anita Ansari
249 Dee Beattie
232 Mark Gifford
228 Maya Russell
213 Gurveen Dhaliwal
191 Danielle Connelly
170 Lisa Graham
Sapperton Pensioners Hall
438 Nadine Nakagawa
420 Patrick Johnstone
399 Mary Trentadue
390 Chinu Das
375 Jaimie McEvoy
349 Chuck Puchmayr

442 Dee Beattie
413 Anita Ansari
335 Maya Russell
326 Gurveen Dhaliwal
325 Danielle Connelly
312 Mark Gifford
252 Mary Lalji

How Did New West’s Neighbourhoods Vote?

The voting results are out for each polling station for the 2018 Municipal Election in New Westminter, and I created a spreadsheet to take a look at how the different neighbourhoods voted. I calculated a “Votes Gained/Lost” value for each candidate for each polling station which compares the actual votes they got with the number they should have got had that polling station voted exactly how the city-wide numbers went. For example, Jonathan Cote was voted for on 71.56% of the ballots across the city, but in the Advance City Hall polling station he received 76.58%. Out of the 1059 total votes cast at Advance City Hall he “should have” received 758 votes but actually received 811, so he over-performed by 53 votes.

There are some interesting patterns to look at. The most obvious one is…

Queensborough

Team Cote got destroyed in Queensborough at both the Advance Voting and the Queen Elizabeth polling station. Maybe “destroyed” is too strong a word, so let’s just say they didn’t do well. If you group the Advance voting and the election day voting, the average Team Cote council candidate under-performed by 136 votes. Jonathan Cote underperformed by 158 votes. The New West Progressives over-performed by an average of 209 votes. If you took only the election-day Queensborough votes as representative for the whole city, council would have all four NWP candidates on it, along with Nadine Nakagawa and Chuck Puchmayr.

In the Mayor’s race, Jonathan Cote’s votes (-158) went largely to Jimmie Bell (+69) and Nikki Binns (+41). Harm Woldring only picked up 10 votes in Queensborough.

I have a theory about why this happened: Temporary Modular Housing. The New West Progressives were largely silent about how they would have voted for the controversial subject, and one of the people who spear-headed the anti-TMH movement was heavily involved in volunteering for the NWP in Queensborough. This leads me to believe that the NWP were pushing the “yes to the project but not in this location” (which was Bryn Ward’s answer when asked how she would have voted) which played well to the voters in that neighbourhood.

Also, the NWP campaigned heavily in Queensborough, even targeting the neighbourhood with a special part of their platform.

As for school trustee candidates, Gurveen Dhaliwal bucked the trend, over-performing in Queensborough by 169 votes. This isn’t surprising given Ms. Dhaliwal was born and raised in Queensborough, and has extensive ties to the community there. Anita Ansari also did well, over-performing by 9 votes. The NWP school trustees also rode the orange wave, especially Lisa Falbo, who over-performed by 231 votes.

Advance Voting

Team Cote really promoted advance voting, especially at the Lawn Bowling Club, and their efforts paid off (except at Queensborough), with an average over-performance of 46 votes, compared to the NWP under-performing by 19 votes. They also did well at City Hall, with every Team Cote candidate doing better than their city-wide performance.

Other Patterns

Century House was a bit of a puzzle for me. I was expecting Chinu Das to do better there, given her extensive volunteering and connections with seniors. She underperformed by 45 votes there, while fellow Team Cote council candidates Jaimie McEvoy (+34) and Chuck Puchmayr (+60) did well. It wasn’t an incumbent bump either, as Patrick Johnstone (-25) and Mary Trentadue (-21) did worse. And it wasn’t an NWP stronghold either, as every council candidate underperformed except for Bryn Ward, who got the expected number of votes.

Team Cote did well at Fraser River Middle School, overperforming by 31 votes for council candidates and 20 for school trustee candidates. Compare these numbers with the NWP’s: -51 for council candidates and -46 for school trustee candidates.

F.W.Howay looks a lot like Queensborough. NWP council candidates over-performed by 26 votes and school trustee candidates by 25 votes, while Team Cote had -30 and -25, respectively. F.W.Howay was Lisa Graham’s best result, where she over-performed by 71 votes. Mary Lalji also did well, picking up 50 votes.

At Herbert Spencer the New West Progressives did well, picking up 33 votes for council and 13 for school trustee candidates, despite Lisa Falbo under-performing by 18 votes. School trustee candidate Alejandro Diaz did best here, picking up a whopping 129 votes. Mary Lalji also over-performed by 98 votes.

Qayqayt Elementary and Riverbend Housing Co-op can be considered to be the two downtown polling stations, and in each location Team Cote over-performed and the New West Progressives underperformed.

Richard McBride was a mixed bag. NWP school trustee candidate Danielle Connelly and Team Cote school trustee candidate Maya Russell are both involved with that school, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that both candidates did better there than their city-wide vote. They both also over-performed at Sapperton Pensioners Hall just down the street. Also doing well at SPH was Team Cote school trustee candidate Dee Beattie, who lives in Sapperton and is very involved in that community.

Glenbrook Middle School is the polling station that most closely matches the city’s overall voting (although strictly speaking I didn’t do the calculation correctly, I should use the standard deviation in the percentage difference and not the standard deviation in the “votes changed/lost”, but it’s close enough for government work).