My ‘Yes In New West’ address to New Westminster Council

On 7 November 2016 a group of New Westminster residents called ‘Yes In New Westspoke before City Council to ask that they add more ‘missing middle’ housing — duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes, townhouses, and rowhouses — in New Westminster as part of its Official Community Plan. Here’s what I had to say:

My name is Brad Cavanagh. I have been a resident of New Westminster for nearly seven years. I am a member of Yes in New West, and I am here to speak to you regarding housing affordability and how the draft land use designation map can help future generations of New Westminster residents afford to live in our city.

New Westminster, like Metro Vancouver, has a housing affordability problem. The benchmark price for a single family house in New West is over a million dollars. To qualify for a mortgage on a million dollar house a family needs an income of at least $170,000, and that’s only if the family has saved up $200,000 for a down payment.

When I moved to New Westminster I was in my early thirties. My wife and I both held well-paying jobs, but with childcare costs we had no extra money to put aside for a down payment. We rented an apartment, then moved into a housing co-op, but home ownership was a distant dream. Condos offer very little outdoor space, and buying a single family house in New Westminster, the city we chose to move to and have grown to love, was completely impossible for us.

Luckily for us we found a townhouse for sale. It ticked all of the boxes we had on our list so we made an offer. After a stressful weekend of waiting, our offer was accepted. We scraped together a 5% down payment, signed a lot of paperwork, and are now homeowners.

Six months later the neighbouring unit sold for 20% more than we paid.

This morning there were thirteen townhouses for sale in New Westminster. Five are under construction, all in Queensborough, and three are in adult-only buildings, leaving only five available for families with children to purchase and move into today. Only one of those is listed for less than what we paid ten months ago.

For families like mine who would like a little more outdoor space than a condo can offer, the current situation is bleak: try and bid on the rare townhouse that comes up for sale and compete against a dozen other offers, or move out of New Westminster.

In 25 years this situation will be even worse if we choose to keep large areas of New Westminster designated to protect the single family house. There needs to be more of the affordable missing middle in New Westminster for families like mine to move into.

Luckily, the draft land use designation map has identified some areas of New Westminster for potential townhouse development. Some of these areas are on busy arterial streets and others are on quieter boulevards but still very close to commercial districts and transit, and all of these should be kept. City staff has identified and recommended that council designate further areas for townhouses. I strongly urge council to accept city staff’s recommendations regarding townhouses to make the missing middle more prevalent and affordable in New Westminster.

I love New Westminster. It’s a great place to raise a family. I am glad that we chose to move here, and I urge council to make the decision to increase the housing options across all neighbourhoods in New Westminster. Keep in mind that these decisions won’t just impact you or me, but also our children and grandchildren. Let’s give them more housing options so they too can grow up and raise their families in New Westminster.

I thank you for your time.

A review of my 2016 running goal

Back in February I laid out my 2016 running goal: finish in the top three in my age division in a timed 8k or 10k race. Since 2016 is done (at least for me for races I’m going to enter) let’s see how I did!

I registered for five races this year but only ran in four. I missed the modo Spring Run-Off 8k in March because I was coming off of a case of bronchitis. The four I ran were the Vancouver Sun Run (10k), the BMO Vancouver Marathon 8k, the Granville Island Turkey Trot (10k), and the Fall Classic (10k). Here are my times:

  • Vancouver Sun Run: 48:11 (4:49 per km)
  • BMO Vancouver Marathon 8k: 36:42 (4:35 per km)
  • Granville Island Turkey Trot: 48:12 (4:49 per km)
  • Fall Classic: 47:43 (4:46 per km)

Now if you read the original post you’ll see that I was targetting a top-three finish in the BMO Vancouver Marathon 8k, as the M40-44 times were rather slow. The fastest in that category last year did it in 38:07.

And look! I crushed that time this year! Beat it by 1:25! So I made my goal, right?

Well, not quite. You see this year for some reason the M40-44 field was tougher. The top finisher in my age category did it in 29:37, over seven minutes faster than me. He finished third overall! I ended up sixth in my age category, which considering the field, is pretty respectable.

In the four races my age category positions were 175/1667 (Sun Run), 6/52 (BMO 8k), 34/151 (Turkey Trot) and 9/58 (Fall Classic).

Two top-ten finishes, every race was faster than a 5:00/km pace, and the rainy Fall Classic was a personal best 10k time. I’ll take it!

Donald Trump’s 650 million person migration

Tonight Donald Trump claimed Hillary Clinton would let 650 million people into the US in a week. While Trump has said some crazy and dangerous things in the past, this one really beggars belief. Let’s look at some of the ways that this is completely off-the-rails insane.

Getting people in

650 million people is a lot of people. Somehow, in a week, they all have to get to the United States. Let’s assume that the entire populations of both Canada and Mexico arrive by land and everybody else arrives by air. Canada and Mexico have about 155 million people combined, so in one week they’d all have to cross the borders. That’s 22 million people per day, or 15,375 per minute, for that entire week. There are 117 land crossings between Canada and the US and 48 between Mexico and the US. That’s 162 crossings that have to handle 15,375 people every minute, so each one has to process 95 per minute, or one person every 0.63 seconds. Of course, there are more people in Mexico than in Canada, so the Mexican border crossings need to process one person every 0.24 seconds while the border guards at Canadian crossings only need a leisurely 2 seconds per person.

Okay, that sounds a little unrealistic. Let’s look at the air arrivals. 500 million people are going to arrive in the United States by air in one week. The largest passenger plane in the world is the Airbus A380. If it’s fully outfit for economy seating, it can hold 853 people. That means you would need to make 586,166 flights into the United States for that week, or just more than 58 flights every minute. There are only 195 Airbus A380s in the world though, so each one would have to arrive in the United States every 3 minutes and 20 seconds. They would have to land, get passengers off, fly back overseas, pick up passengers, and fly back to the US, all in 3:20.

This is starting to sound a little impossible.

The Airbus A380 only needs about 5900 feet to land, but over 9000 feet to take off, so its choice of airports is restricted as well. In the US there are 189 runways longer than 10000 feet, which is amazingly close to the 195 Airbus A380s in the world, so we could just assign one plane to each runway (spreading out the other 6 planes amongst those runways). That makes logistics easier!

But hey, we’re not restricted to just A380s. In 2013 the worldwide commercial fleet was at about 20,000 planes, so let’s press them all into service! 500 million people spread over 20,000 planes means we only need to bring in 25,000 people per plane for that week. Suppose each plane can hold 250 people (that’s just a wild-ass guess), so that’s only 100 flights per plane per week, or 14 every day. Each airplane then has to make a round trip every hour and 40 minutes!

Okay, maybe it’s not that realistic.

Housing them when they’re in the US

Let’s assume that somehow the largest migration in the history of the world is a success and the United States has just allowed 650 million more people within its territory. Luckily the US has a lot of land to spread out in — its current population density is about 86 people per square mile, so tripling this only puts it at about 260 per square mile. This is right about the population density of Albania, Syria, or Sierra Leone. No problems there.

But where do they actually live? Do they live in hotels? There are about 5 million hotel rooms in the US, so that’s a tidy 130 people per room. The average hotel room is about 330 square feet, so each person gets a cozy 2.5 square feet! Who needs to sleep?

Or maybe we billet them in American’s houses. In 2015 there were about 125 million households in the US, so each one would have to take 5.2 people, which is the most realistic thing I’ve calculated tonight.

Feeding them all

Once those 650 million extra people are in the US and have found housing, they probably want to be fed. At any one time the US only has about three days’ worth of food available in the logistics chain, and that’s for 315 million people. Triple the population and you have to triple the amount of food available. The US does export about $150 billion worth of food every year, so maybe they could just stop exporting food and feed the people with that, so each person would get $230 worth of food a year. But 350 million tons of corn is exported annually, so those extra 650 million people could just split all that up and have a half-ton of corn each! That sounds nutritious and totally do-able, if you ignore the fact that the overwhelming majority of that corn is grown for agricultural use (cows, mostly) and isn’t suitable for human consumption.

Don’t forget utilities

These people are going to use electricity as well, mostly to heat more water. In 2015 the average American household used 901 kWh per month, and the average household had 2.54 people, so let’s say each person uses 355 kWh per month. 650 million more people means almost 231,000 megawatt hours per month. The US generated about 410,000 megawatt hours in August 2016, so if we just take the increase in residential load the US’s electricity generation would need to increase by over 50%. In a week.

The average person uses about 90 gallons of water per day, so that’s an extra 58.5 billion gallons of water used every day. On average Niagara Falls has four million cubic feet of water flow over it every minute, which is about 5.8 billion cubic feet every day. One cubic foot of water has 7.48 gallons, so Niagara Falls could supply 43 billion gallons of water every day, which isn’t quite enough for the 650 million people. It’s close enough though, so let’s just say we have tapped Niagara Falls entirely for this influx of people. Oh, and that happened in a week as well.

But that’s not all!

How do you get the people from the airports to where they’ll be living? What about hospitals; assume people visit hospitals at the same rate they do now, hospitals can’t handle three times as many emergency room visits, surgeries, births, deaths, and everything else medical. Do the children go to school? Where? What about jobs? Policing?

There are just too many ways that this is unrealistic. I’m beginning to think that maybe Donald Trump doesn’t really know what he’s talking about.

Kudos for the NWSS Funding Announcement

The New Westminster Secondary School replacement funding announcement has been a long time in coming, and correspondingly there has been a lot of work done behind the scenes. People like me often complain about the whole process without giving praise where praise is due, so let’s stop complaining and start praising!

First and foremost, the biggest kudos belong to Jonina Campbell, chair of the school board. She has worked long and hard to keep the pressure up in getting NWSS replaced. She is a tireless advocate for education in New Westminster and deserves all of the praise anybody could ever give her. I’ve been at DPAC meetings where she’s given updates, and I could tell she was getting a little frustrated with how long things were taking, but she was professional and collected throughout the entire process. Thank you Jonina!

Praise also to the two new members of the school board trustees: Kelly Slade-Kerr and Mark Gifford. They’ve also worked hard, not only to get everything lined up from the school board’s point-of-view, but by bringing a unified, harmonious, and level-headed voice forward on behalf of everybody involved in New Westminster. Previous school boards were fairly dysfunctional, and Slade-Kerr and Gifford both brought much-needed stability and unity to the table.

Kudos to Danielle Connelly and Mona Boucher for raising the pressure on behalf of parents. The rally brought the issue to the forefront in provincial media, and that pressure helped get the funding through.

Thanks also to Judy Darcy for organizing petitions and meeting with Mike Bernier daily to make sure that replacing NWSS was truly at the top of the Ministry of Education’s list.

There are probably countless staff members at School District 40 who have worked on the plans through this entire process, making sure that all of the boxes were checked, and they deserve our thanks as well.

We’ve been waiting a long time to thank someone for getting NWSS rebuilt, so let’s thank everybody I mentioned here!

Hyack Football vs The Machine

With voting day in the School District 40 by-election just 9 days away, the usual arguments in New Westminster politics have started coming out. One of the candidates, Dee Beattie, received the endorsement of the New Westminster & District Labour Council while the other, Mary Lalji, did not. This has lead to the usual spilling of ink about how The Machine will lead Beattie to victory, as if assuming that she has no other qualifications that people may want to vote for beyond the endorsement.

And, frankly, that’s kind of the case. Both candidates offer pretty much the same things. They would both be capable school board trustees. They both want the best for the children of New Westminster. While I have issues with some of their issues (in Beattie’s case I find her previous lack of engagement with the community to be a weakness and there’s no way Richard McBride Elementary should remain standing, and in Lalji’s case I find her endorsement of school buses for Queensborough children lacking a grounding in understanding the school district’s budgetary constraints) I would be perfectly happy with either candidate becoming a school board trustee.

So in this election, I believe that the differentiation between the two candidates comes from the community of people who backs them.

In Beattie’s case, it’s labour. As she says, she’s a CUPE person. She has the backing of nearly every other person elected to public office in New Westminster, all of whom were endorsed by the NWDLC, coincidentally enough. Her lack of engagement within New Westminster is being propped up by these endorsements. To some people, that’s a plus. The NWDLC interviews candidates and endorses those that it believes offer progressive views. New Westminster is a relatively progressive city, so it only stands to reason that more people in New West would want to vote for someone that shares those views, and the endorsement by the NWDLC is a good way for candidates to show they have progressive views.

That process tends to work best in general elections where candidates are first nominated to be elected, after which they seek the NWDLC endorsement. In this by-election, a few people were interviewed by the NWDLC first, the NWDLC chose Beattie to be the endorsed candidate, and then Beattie filed her nomination papers. This strikes me as backwards and almost anti-democratic as it probably discouraged those who sought but did not receive the endorsement from running. Frankly, the more people running the better, and if even one potential candidate didn’t run because the NWDLC wouldn’t endorse them, then that’s a failure of democracy that lies in the NWDLC’s lap.

With the NWDLC endorsement comes The Machine. I’ve been told that the following is all optional but the majority of NWDLC-endorsed candidates seemed to have accepted this help in the past election. The Machine is the colloquial name for all of the machinery that comes with a political campaign: phone banks, lists of phone numbers and email addresses of potential supporters, door-to-door canvassing assistance, and election day support (driving potential supporters to the polls, calling supporters to remind them to vote, that sort of thing). Candidates often pool their resources to save money and have a more effective campaign, but additional support comes from outside (I’ve heard rumours that this is supplied by the NDP, but don’t hold me to that). Candidates are obviously free to accept and reject any part of this support; they don’t need to take all of it if they don’t feel comfortable doing so.

Side note and full disclosure: in the last municipal election I supported Patrick Johnstone both financially and by volunteering. At least, I tried to volunteer for him, but when I showed up at the campaign office he was sharing with other NWDLC-endorsed candidates (another Machine perk), I ended up being a runner to help out other volunteers who were volunteering for the entire suite of NWDLC candidates. Someone I know was in the same boat: volunteering for Johnstone but actually phone-banking on behalf of a different candidate altogether. This isn’t to call him out (I know he did a hell of a lot of campaigning on his own and raised a shedload of money from individuals in New West), this is merely to throw a little light on how The Machine works.

In this by-election there is no pooling of resources because there’s only one NWDLC-endorsed candidate. That hasn’t stopped other parts of The Machine from being put into action, however. I’ve received three phone calls (two automated, one real person) and one email from Dee Beattie’s campaign, even though I’m pretty sure I never gave her my phone number. My phone number came from someone’s list. Maybe the NDP’s — I’m a member so it could have come from them.

The Machine is up and running, and one would think that Mary Lalji stands at a disadvantage because of it.

But I think that’s actually her strength. Lalji has completely different roots in the community. She’s heavily involved with Hyack Football, which is an extremely successful group in New West. Hyack Football isn’t just the high school football team, they also do youth football and cheerleading starting from kindergarten. They’re very involved in the community, not just as an organization but they encourage students to become engaged in the community. They’re a Big Deal in New Westminster, and Lalji definitely gains support because of it.

She also works at Key West Ford, which is a major sponsor of a number of festivals and events in New Westminster. Hell, she’s their Public Relations Manager, so you know she’s got contacts with the community through that. A community that actually knows someone is more likely to support them, and this is Lalji’s strength.

A friend of mine asked me if I thought the blowback from The Machine would be as bad if Lalji was the endorsed candidate. I think it would have still been there, but not nearly as strong. There are people who are going to vote against the NWDLC-endorsed candidate no matter what. You can’t appease them, so there’s no sense in trying. But Lalji comes from outside the labour camp. She’s not a union member like Beattie is. She has strong ties to local organizations and businesses that have nothing to do with labour. There are people I know who are big backers of Hyack Football who are likely going to vote for Lalji because of that, and with an NWDLC endorsement I think they still would, because the NWDLC endorsement would have less influence than her ties to Hyack Football or other community outreach she’s done. She could have easily said “look, the NWDLC endorsement is nice because it shows I have progressive ideas, but my strength comes from my community ties”, which would have been a good way to defuse any naysayers.

Lalji’s true endorsement comes from her ties to the community and not the NWDLC. Having both endorsements would have been powerful, and if the NWDLC interviewed and rejected her, I think that’s a mistake on their part.

So now the only real differentiation between the two candidates is their backers. Lalji is backed by a large part of the community of New Westminster, and Beattie is endorsed by the NWDLC and not much of the community. All things being equal, this by-election is Hyack Football vs. The Machine.

So here’s my prediction: in this by-election I think that the NWDLC endorsement of Dee Beattie will be a larger negative than it was perceived to be in previous elections. I don’t see Mary Lalji losing this election.

Please note that this isn’t me endorsing Mary Lalji. I believe that voting is a personal and private matter, and I’m not going to tell you who I’m going to vote for. I also believe in Dogwood’s views on endorsements: read the facts, make up your own mind, and most importantly go vote for the candidate you believe in and not the candidate someone tells you to vote for.